The Absurdity of Presidential Polls

I love statistics, but even I am losing interest in the presidential polling data. The following was actually broadcast on the Fox Business Channel on 12/14/15:

“A new poll is out showing Ted Cruz is skyrocketing into second place nationally, just five percentage points behind Trump and well ahead of Marco Rubio and Ben Carson. Trump has 27%, Cruz has 22%, Rubio has 15%, and Carson has 11%. Now while two polls in Iowa have Cruz in the lead by wide margins in both, you’ve also got a recent poll by Monmouth University showing that he’s way in front. The Des Moines Register poll has Cruz at 31% and Trump at 21%. The Fox News poll has Cruz at 32% and Trump at 25%. And the Monmouth University poll has Cruz at 24% and Trump at 19%.

“We have a brand new national poll from Monmouth University that shows Trump surging among Republican and Republican-leaning voters. He jumped to 41% in this new poll out today compared to 28% in the last national Monmouth poll in October. Cruz doesn’t rocket in this one. He came in second, rising to 14% from about 10% before. Marco Rubio is third at 10% and Ben Carson is falling at 9%, half of his posting in October.

“So it doesn’t exactly track that Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll that was released earlier that shows this big surge for Cruz and tightens the race nationally between him and Trump. Trump hit a new high of 27% in the Wall Street Journal / NBC News poll with Cruz more than doubling to 22%, so there’s the surge there in that one from the last NBC / Journal poll in October, with Rubio checking at 15% and Carson collapsing to 11% from 29% in the NBC News poll.”

If this were a reading comprehension test, how well would you have done?

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