Why Trump Will Win

Trump will beat Hillary–not so much based upon their policies or (lack of) popularity, but primarily because this is how American politics works.  Since we’ve just completed eight years of a Democrat administration, it’s time for the people to revert back and choose a Republican this time.  That’s the way our two-party system works.  We move to the left for eight years until the pendulum swings too far.  Then we move back to the right for eight years and get tired of that as well.

Over the last 150 years since the two major parties have been Democrat and Republican, this trend has been broken only a handful of times (and only once by a Democrat), and it was always following a very popular and very strong president.  Furthermore this has only happened once during the last 60 years.  Reagan was so strong and popular that he won 49 of 50 states in 1984, so his vice president (Bush 41) was able to squeeze in on Reagan’s coattails.  However, Bush was then unable to get re-elected on his own.

Before that, Vice President Truman became president following the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt, and he won one additional term.  These two presidents kept Democrats in the White House for an unprecedented 20 years.  Again, this was due to Franklin D. Roosevelt’s popularity during the Great Depression and World War II.

The Republicans held the White House for 12 years from 1920 to 1932 when Hoover rode Coolidge’s coattails and got elected for a single term.  Like Bush, he was unable to get re-elected.  The same was true for the Republicans when Taft was able to get a single term based upon Teddy Roosevelt’s popularity.  The longest the Republicans ever held the White House was 16 years, with President’s Grant, Hayes, Garfield, and Arthur.  All of this was really due to carryover of Lincoln’s popularity after Johnson’s failed succession to Lincoln.

This means that even the effects of well-liked presidents such as Eisenhower and Kennedy weren’t able to keep their party in the White House for over eight years.

History tells us that only the strongest and most popular presidents can keep their party’s administrations going for over eight years.  So, Trump will win because Obama has been weak and unpopular, leaving no coattails for Hillary to cling to.  President Obama, we’ve read history, and you’re no Reagan, Roosevelt, Coolidge, or Lincoln; or, even an Eisenhower or Kennedy.

How Will He Do It?

Here’s the breakdown of registered voters by gender and race:


Of course this won’t happen, but if all women & minorities voted for Hillary, and all white men voted for Trump (and all registered voters really voted), then Hillary would defeat Trump by some 65 million votes.

Now, here’s what the polls would have us believe:  That about 90% of minorities & women will vote for Hillary, and about 90% of white men will vote for Trump.  Here’s what that would look like:


Hillary would still beat Trump by some 52 million votes.

However, suppose that the Trump voters are indeed more motivated to vote.  Let’s say that 50% of the women & minorities actually vote, but 90% of the white men actually vote.  Here’s what that would look like:


Trump would edge out Hillary by some 1,000,000 votes.  This total of 134,500,000 is, in fact, about the number of votes that will be cast.  It will take about 67,250,00 to win, and in the above scenario, Trump gets 67,750,000.

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